I have a secret for you.

At the same time Canada’s unemployment rate climbs, and as employers across the country freeze or limit salary increases, human resources executives are developing plans to regain a competitive edge in the war for talent.

The fight to attract and retain employees, rudely interrupted by the downturn last summer, will be taken up again. The oldest of Canada’s baby boomers have reached their mid-60s. While fewer are in a position to retire full-time than had been expected, many will leave their current jobs in the coming years. This will create a talent shortage for many employers and provide you with a greatly improved position from which to negotiate your next gig.

I’m not making this up. People have written books about it.

As the war for talent regains executives’ attention, those organizations able to inspire loyalty among employees will enjoy an important advantage. But a new study from Ipsos Reid suggests this will be a tall order.

More than one in five Canadians – 22% to be precise – told Ipsos Reid that their “sense of loyalty to [their] employer is decreasing.” Just 11% said it is increasing.

Declines in employee loyalty are not new; this has been happening around the world for decades. But JB Aloy, an Ipsos Reid spokesman, told me that the current downturn has had a sharply negative effect.

“There’s a need for reciprocity, and that’s really what’s missing right now in the relationship between employers and employees,” he said. “Employees feel that it’s one-sided. Employers expect a lot right now. There’s a lot of pressure in the workplace, and they have the feeling that they don’t get much in return.”

Where staff cuts have been made, 36% of employees reported a decline in their loyalty. In companies where salaries have been frozen, 31% of employees said the same.

National responses are consistently around the 22% average across gender, age groups and regions, with one exception. Just 10% of Quebec respondents said their loyalty is in decline. Thirteen per cent said it was increasing and 74% reported a stable level of loyalty.

“It’s different in Quebec for two main reasons,” said Aloy. “First, there’s less anxiety concerning job security compared to the rest of the country. The other aspect is that there’s a real correlation between job satisfaction and loyalty. Employees in Quebec are much more satisfied with their job situation.”

Employee loyalty is a tricky goal to achieve. I’ve seen loyalty play a part in successful small organizations, where a personal relationship with an owner-operator can have a positive influence on a professional’s decision to come or go. Beyond that, few organizations have figured out how to create a consistently positive employee experience that earns genuine loyalty.

The war for talent will make a comeback. In 2003, The Conference Board of Canada predicted labour shortages in our country by as early as 2011. We might see that delayed as a result of the downturn, but the demographics will ultimately take their toll. As baby boomers exit the workforce, employers will struggle to replace them.

That’s going to mean opportunity for many of us. Stay tuned.